A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
